The Banking Crisis is Over (?) Long Live the Economic Crisis

If you believe in the United States of America then you will believe in: JPMorgan Chase (which includes Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual); Bank of America (which includes Merrill Lynch); Wells Fargo (which includes Wachovia); Citigroup; Bank of New York Mellon; and the two brand-new banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Each will be receiving multi-billion-dollar injections of cash from the Treasury. And, to help retain deposits, there’s the FDIC’s new deposit guarantee limit, which was raised to $250,000 per depositor from $100,000, at these and other fine banking institutions.

An early and harsh critic in this crisis and of just about everything else to do with the US, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the UK Telegraph said yesterday, “If the history of financial crises is any guide, the violent credit shock of 2007-2008 has largely run its course. The sovereign states of the US, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Holland have broad enough shoulders to carry their load of fresh liabilities – even if Iceland does not.”

So, PM Berlusconi and other rumor mongers, it looks like there won’t be a worldwide bank moratorium. And there’s no need to continue the run on your local branch, as long as it’s one of the above-mentioned nationalized survivors. Personally, I’m skeptical and I’m not keeping more than transaction-necessary amounts in my bank.

But then there’s this from Reuters: “The US government's broadly expanded guarantee program (via the FDIC) is expected to cover about $1.9 trillion in US banks' new debt and additional deposits . . . Bair called the temporary liquidity guarantee program a "profound and unprecedented action" to boost confidence in credit markets. The guarantees cover a pool of about $1.4 trillion in senior unsecured debt and about $400 billion to $500 billion in transaction deposit accounts, which businesses typically use to meet payroll and pay vendors.” Sounds good, but it was just in August that Bair said the FDIC: “might have to borrow money from the Treasury Department to see it through an expected wave of bank failures.” At that time there were only about 100 banks on the problem list and there weren’t enough funds to cover the then $100,000 guarantees.

Is the world now safe for derivatives . . . for mortgage debt . . . auto loans . . . credit-card debt . . . your checking account? Probably your checking account, at least temporarily.
British economist John Maynard Keynes once said, "When the facts change, I change my mind." I think it’s too soon to change your mind.

mg